Top Economists Convinced a Major Recession is Possible In 2020

Many people do not pay economists much attention until they start to say things such as “a recession is coming our way in the next couple of years”. Then people start to perk up. Unfortunately, one of those times is right now. We want to take a look at what those economists are saying and why we should perhaps be worried.

Tax Cuts Provide Short-Term Growth

It is actually pretty difficult to find an economists who disagrees with the tax cuts that President Trump signed into law after they were passed through Congress. They tend to agree that these tax cuts have provided a boost to the economy in some way or another. What they may have difficulty agreeing on is exactly how long that is going to last. More and more of them are now pointing to the idea that these tax cuts may have been just a short-term sugar rush for the markets and things could get a lot worse soon.

Panel Is Optimistic About 2018

One bit of good news for now is that economists do see the rest of 2018 as rather positive at the moment. They are saying that it looks like this year is going to continue on rather smoothly despite a slight miss on GDP growth in March (actual GDP growth was 2.8% compared to 2.9% expected).

Trade Policies Are A Worry

Many were taken by surprised when President Trump announced new tariffs to be lodged against Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. While the move to put tariffs on China was not exactly unexpected (Trump had campaigned on this idea), putting them on our closest allies is not something that most had counted on. This makes a lot of economists nervous that the near future may not be so grand for the economy.

Retirement Of Baby Boomers

Baby boomers are continuing to retire in record numbers. Some estimates put the number at approximately ten-thousand retirements per day. That is going to be a factor that weighs on economic growth into the future say many of the economists who have been asked about it. They do not share the view that the Trump Administration does that economic growth by GDP could continue on at three percent per year for the next decade.

The Recovery Has To Break At Some Point

The economic recovery that we are in now is the second-longest in American history. If it makes it past June of 2019 then it will literally be the longest in history. Economists are concerned that it simply has to break at some point. They believe that it might just snap and cause a big downfall to the other side. It is so exciting for so many people right now to feel that the economy is just going to click along as it has for many years. However, it is something that should be tempered by the fact that at some point things are likely to change.